Australia: where have the migrants come from?

These graphs present an analysis of results of the “country of birth” question in Australian censuses from 1991 to 2011. The goal is to determine the relative growth in migration from various countries across the timespan, and answer the following question: where have Australian migrants come from in the past two decades?

Two methods have been applied to determine the answer to this question:

1. The positive natural population growth effect has been ruled out by adjusting all annual figures 1991-2006 to 2011 levels
2. All 1991 figures have been weighted to equal 100%. For example, Indonesia has seen a result of 150% in 2011. This means that, as a proportion of the Australian population, Indonesians represent a 50% larger amount than in 2001. 

Australia and European Sources of Migrants

Australia and European countries of birth. Real volumes are relative to 1991 levels.

Of the 21.7 million people in Australia in 2011, 15 million were born in Australia. As a proportion of the population, this amounts to 69% of people, down from 75% in 1991. This proportionate fall equates to a real 8% fall as a proportion of the country from their 1991 levels (represented as 92% in 2011 in the graph above).

The European nations have largely seen steady falls. Greece and Italy have seen an almost perfectly correlated linear fall to only 57% of their 1991 levels. These two nations represent the single largest falls of any nation. It appears the sustained sovereign debt crisis in the Eurozone has done little to increase migration levels to Australia, although admittedly these statistics don't cover the height of the crisis in late 2011/early 2012.

The UK saw significant falls between 1991 and 2001, however this subsequently steadied over the following decade to 2011.  Ireland, however, closely followed the UK until 2006. However, subsequently all of the losses 1991-2006 were reversed to leave Ireland with a slightly larger proportion of the population than in 1991, at 101%. As one of the English-speaking countries hardest hit by the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), this illustrates that Australia has been selected as a primary destination for Irish economic migrants.

East Asian Sources including China

East Asian countries of birth. Real migrant volumes are relative to 1991 levels.

Migration from east-Asian countries since 1991 follows a broadly exponential growth curve. Japan, Indonesia and Singapore has seen very similar levels of real growth in the range 148%-157% of 1991 levels. These levels of growth are steady but significant. Philippines has seen larger levels of growth; not quite in the explosive range, but a nevertheless significant growth to 182% of 1991 levels.

Thailand, South Korea and China, however, head up the group of east-Asian migrant source countries, with 257%, 282% and 318% respectively. All three countries have seen their proportionate representation in Australia accelerate rapidly. Unsurprisingly, Chinese-born migrants, in particular represent both the largest growth rates, and by far the largest absolute figures, with their 318,969 respondents now comprising 1.5% of all people in Australia (up from 0.4% in 1991).

China, South Korea, Thailand, Japan, Singapore, Indonesia and the Philippines combined have seen an increase that equates to 182% of their 1991 levels. This can be interpreted as a near-doubling of the size and influence of east-Asian culture in Australia compared with 20 years ago.

Western and South Asian Sources

Iraq, India and Sri Lanka as countries of birth. Real volumes are relative to 1991 levels.

Last, but by no means least, are the south and western Asian migrant source countries. These countries have even outpaced the growth of east Asian migration. India-born migrants have reached 375% of 1991 levels in Australia, significantly ahead of China in terms of growth rate, and almost catching up in absolute terms with 295,362 born in India. From 1991-1996, the real growth rate of Sri Lankan migration almost perfectly matched India’s. However from 2001 onwards, India has surged ahead of its sub-continental neighbour.

The real outlier here, however, is Iraq. This country has seen truly explosive growth in Australia as a source of migrants. Whilst the absolute count, at only 48,169 is smaller than many countries, this is the result of a huge gain considering in 1991 there were only 5,172 Iraq-born migrants in Australia. The spur for this migration can be identified as the Gulf War 1990-91 and the Iraq War 2003-2011. For example, in 2010-11, 3083 Iraqi nationals were given permanent residence in Australia, of which 2730 (78%) were through the Australian Humanitarian Programme.