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Saturday, 25 August 2012

The population capacity of Australia

Australia is one of the emptiest countries in the world. In fact, it is the 12th least densely populated country in the world, ranked alongside vast, empty territories such as Mongolia and Western Sahara.

However given that a significant area of Australia is arid desert, perhaps it has reached capacity, constrained by limited food production? Certainly, Small Australia advocates such as Dick Smith appear to think that Australia is under unsustainable population pressure, having made comments this week that Brisbane increasing its population to 4 million would be "complete madness".

Unfortunately for Dick, the food capacity figures don't support his view. Australia has by far the most food growing capacity per capita on earth. Real Population Density measures the number of people per kilometre of arable land. The chart below inverses Real Population Density and shows the amount of arable land per person - and Australia clearly has the largest by a significant margin.

The amount of arable land per capita, in square metres. Australia has by far the most arable land per resident. Other notable countries are highlighted in orange for comparison.
So we can see that Australia under-uses its arable land relative to other countries. But what could its population be if it matched the utilisation seen in other nations? The chart below shows what Australia's population could be.

If Australia had the Real Population Density seen in each of these nations, what would its population be?


If Australia fed as many people as the world average with its arable land, its population would be 152 million, around 7 times its current population, or just under half of the population of the United States.

Australia could allow its population to grow to 84 million, and it would match the utilisation of food growing capacity of the United States. If it grew to a massive 1.4 billion, it would only then be matching Japan and South Korea's real population density.

Of course there are multiple factors that can skew these figures. Food exports and imports will affect the figures at a national level. Other parameters include level of development and cultural differences; these will affect how food is used. Perhaps the fairest comparison is the United States - a nation of a similar geographical area, development level and culture - which indicates an Australian population of 84 million is entirely sustainable.

The 'Real Population Density' figures used here are derived from the 2005 CIA World Factbook.

Thursday, 23 August 2012

Most densely populated suburbs in Australia

A ranking of the top 150 most densely populated suburbs in Australia. New South Wales utterly dominates the list, with 118 of the top areas. Victoria provides 25, Queensland provides 6 and Western Australia provides 1 suburb.

The suburb with the highest population density in Australia is Elisabeth Bay in inner Sydney. Victoria's densest area is Southbank, Queensland's is Teneriffe and WA's is Highgate.

*Density = Population density measured by persons per square kilometre.

Rank State Rank Name State Persons Area (sq. km.) Density*
1 1 Elizabeth Bay NSW 5093 0.253 20165
2 2 Rushcutters
Bay
NSW 2372 0.156 15221
3 3 Wentworth Point NSW 2759 0.214 12869
4 4 Ultimo NSW 7111 0.558 12734
5 5 Pyrmont NSW 11618 0.933 12458
6 6 Darlinghurst NSW 10060 0.857 11738
7 7 Milsons Point NSW 2013 0.172 11701
8 8 Surry
Hills
NSW 15342 1.317 11651
9 9 Bondi NSW 9614 0.861 11162
10 10 Potts
Point
NSW 6862 0.617 11128
11 11 Redfern NSW 12034 1.172 10269
12 12 Haymarket NSW 5376 0.529 10169
13 13 Liberty Grove NSW 2048 0.207 9880
14 14 Millers
Point
NSW 1736 0.178 9739
15 15 Waterloo (NSW) NSW 10657 1.134 9399
16 16 Hillsdale NSW 4977 0.546 9110
17 17 Bondi Beach NSW 10748 1.186 9063
18 18 Newtown
(NSW)
NSW 14148 1.571 9008
19 1 Southbank VIC 11235 1.262 8900
20 19 Chippendale NSW 4057 0.463 8761
21 20 Allawah NSW 5367 0.625 8591
22 21 Woolloomooloo NSW 3716 0.434 8553
23 22 Erskineville NSW 6848 0.814 8412
24 23 Edgecliff NSW 1981 0.241 8217
25 24 Bondi Junction NSW 8660 1.079 8023
26 25 Enmore
(Marrickville - NSW)
NSW 3572 0.445 8022
27 2 Carlton (Vic.) VIC 13509 1.696 7964
28 26 Harris
Park
NSW 5072 0.637 7956
29 27 Kirribilli NSW 3668 0.476 7708
30 28 Paddington
(NSW)
NSW 12134 1.611 7531
31 29 Neutral Bay NSW 9384 1.265 7421
32 30 Coogee
(NSW)
NSW 14012 1.918 7304
33 31 Waverley (NSW) NSW 4253 0.590 7206
34 32 Lakemba NSW 15508 2.187 7091
35 33 North Bondi NSW 8581 1.213 7076
36 34 Kingsford
(NSW)
NSW 14101 2.013 7004
37 35 Wiley Park NSW 9698 1.393 6962
38 3 Fitzroy
(Vic.)
VIC 9430 1.377 6846
39 36 St Leonards (NSW) NSW 4467 0.665 6717
40 4 Balaclava
(Vic.)
VIC 5383 0.805 6686
41 37 McMahons Point NSW 2344 0.352 6659
42 38 Kurraba
Point
NSW 1702 0.258 6602
43 39 Glebe (NSW) NSW 11123 1.688 6589
44 40 Cremorne
(NSW)
NSW 11048 1.691 6534
45 1 Teneriffe QLD 4699 0.721 6518
46 41 Balmain
East
NSW 1866 0.289 6454
47 42 Balmain NSW 9783 1.523 6422
48 43 Wollstonecraft NSW 8012 1.255 6383
49 5 Windsor (Vic.) VIC 7069 1.111 6364
50 44 Ashfield
(NSW)
NSW 22189 3.495 6348
51 45 Waitara NSW 5370 0.847 6337
52 46 Dulwich
Hill
NSW 12981 2.052 6326
53 47 Campsie NSW 21218 3.370 6295
54 48 Dee
Why
NSW 19838 3.152 6293
55 49 Queenscliff (NSW) NSW 3208 0.512 6268
56 50 Stanmore
(NSW)
NSW 7702 1.259 6115
57 51 Fairlight NSW 5489 0.902 6087
58 52 Hurstville NSW 26040 4.281 6082
59 53 Summer Hill (Ashfield - NSW) NSW 6587 1.092 6032
60 54 Forest
Lodge
NSW 2722 0.452 6019
61 55 Dolls Point NSW 1784 0.298 5991
62 56 Tamarama NSW 1450 0.243 5967
63 6 Prahran VIC 11191 1.901 5887
64 57 Darlington
(Sydney - NSW)
NSW 2243 0.381 5883
65 58 Newington (NSW) NSW 5320 0.908 5860
66 59 Clovelly NSW 4581 0.782 5858
67 60 Annandale (NSW) NSW 8669 1.489 5823
68 61 Petersham NSW 7529 1.298 5801
69 62 Rockdale NSW 14036 2.424 5790
70 7 Elwood VIC 14638 2.554 5732
71 63 Double Bay NSW 4687 0.819 5725
72 64 Darling
Point
NSW 3919 0.687 5703
73 65 Rhodes NSW 5679 1.006 5645
74 66 Cremorne
Point
NSW 1978 0.352 5618
75 67 Woollahra NSW 7180 1.279 5615
76 8 St
Kilda (Vic.)
VIC 17795 3.179 5597
77 9 St Kilda East VIC 12576 2.256 5575
78 2 New
Farm
QLD 11330 2.055 5513
79 68 Birchgrove NSW 3107 0.576 5397
80 10 St
Kilda West
VIC 2845 0.529 5381
81 3 Kangaroo Point (Qld) QLD 7000 1.301 5379
82 69 Lavender
Bay
NSW 852 0.159 5357
83 11 Richmond (Vic.) VIC 23814 4.476 5321
84 70 Meadowbank
(NSW)
NSW 3667 0.691 5303
85 71 Crows Nest (NSW) NSW 4048 0.765 5293
86 72 Camperdown
(NSW)
NSW 7866 1.491 5276
87 12 South Yarra VIC 19134 3.649 5243
88 73 Breakfast
Point
NSW 2744 0.524 5232
89 74 Randwick NSW 27740 5.309 5225
90 13 Glen
Huntly
VIC 4658 0.894 5212
91 75 Leichhardt (NSW) NSW 13520 2.612 5176
92 14 Ripponlea VIC 1478 0.286 5168
93 76 Beaconsfield (NSW) NSW 906 0.176 5147
94 77 Burwood
(NSW)
NSW 12466 2.425 5140
95 15 Collingwood (Vic.) VIC 6467 1.267 5104
96 16 Seddon
(Vic.)
VIC 4851 0.955 5078
97 78 Bronte NSW 6827 1.347 5069
98 79 Sydney NSW 14308 2.840 5039
99 80 Abbotsford (NSW) NSW 5112 1.018 5022
100 1 Highgate
(WA)
WA 1941 0.388 5004
101 81 Maroubra NSW 29594 5.924 4996
102 82 Drummoyne NSW 11378 2.279 4992
103 83 Kogarah NSW 12764 2.589 4930
104 17 North
Melbourne
VIC 11755 2.389 4920
105 84 Carlton (NSW) NSW 9808 1.995 4916
106 85 Penshurst
(NSW)
NSW 11692 2.386 4901
107 86 Brighton-le-Sands NSW 8003 1.636 4893
108 87 Westmead NSW 14171 2.903 4882
109 88 Bankstown NSW 30572 6.290 4861
110 18 Kingsville VIC 3509 0.725 4841
111 89 Kensington (NSW) NSW 12776 2.643 4835
112 4 Highgate
Hill
QLD 5824 1.210 4812
113 90 Chiswick NSW 2470 0.513 4812
114 19 Princes
Hill
VIC 2075 0.433 4790
115 20 Middle Park (Vic.) VIC 4058 0.848 4788
116 91 Zetland NSW 3812 0.804 4742
117 92 North Strathfield NSW 4441 0.939 4731
118 93 Cooks
Hill
NSW 3621 0.767 4720
119 94 Russell Lea NSW 4780 1.020 4685
120 95 Freshwater
(NSW)
NSW 8252 1.763 4681
121 96 Wareemba NSW 1474 0.317 4652
122 97 Belmore NSW 12574 2.731 4605
123 98 Cabramatta NSW 20780 4.535 4582
124 21 Fitzroy
North
VIC 11473 2.505 4580
125 99 Cammeray NSW 6784 1.487 4561
126 22 Melbourne VIC 28371 6.232 4552
127 100 Dawes Point NSW 544 0.120 4539
128 23 Kensington
(Vic.)
VIC 9719 2.147 4527
129 101 Fairfield Heights NSW 6649 1.474 4510
130 102 Lewisham
(NSW)
NSW 2927 0.650 4506
131 103 South Coogee NSW 5076 1.132 4483
132 104 Bellevue
Hill
NSW 10765 2.405 4476
133 105 Rozelle NSW 7919 1.777 4457
134 5 Spring
Hill (Qld)
QLD 5259 1.184 4440
135 24 Brunswick (Vic.) VIC 22764 5.142 4427
136 106 Cronulla NSW 17042 3.875 4397
137 107 Rosebery (NSW) NSW 8479 1.928 4397
138 108 South
Hurstville
NSW 4928 1.121 4395
139 109 Waverton NSW 2807 0.639 4392
140 110 Punchbowl
(Canterbury - NSW)
NSW 18429 4.243 4344
141 111 North Sydney NSW 6258 1.441 4341
142 112 Naremburn NSW 5474 1.261 4341
143 113 Bexley NSW 19067 4.399 4335
144 114 Bardwell
Valley
NSW 2205 0.510 4320
145 25 Carnegie VIC 16299 3.805 4284
146 115 Chatswood NSW 21194 4.961 4272
147 116 Croydon (NSW) NSW 10381 2.451 4236
148 117 Marrickville NSW 24613 5.813 4234
149 6 Auchenflower QLD 5352 1.270 4213
150 118 Croydon Park (NSW) NSW 10742 2.564 4189